The International Air Transport Association (IATA), in collaboration with Worley Consulting, recently published a study indicating that sufficient sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock exists for the airline industry to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. All considered feedstocks comply with stringent sustainability criteria and do not necessitate changes in land use.

The study highlights significant challenges in utilizing this feedstock for SAF production, including:

• The slow pace of technology deployment required for producing SAF from diverse sources. Currently, existing SAF production facilities primarily utilize HEFA technology, converting used cooking oil into SAF, for instance.
• Competition from other potential feedstock users. It is essential to prioritize allocating biomass feedstock to difficult-to-abate sectors like aviation.

To reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050, airlines need 500 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF, as per the IATA Net Zero Roadmaps. This target can be supported through two key sources:

• Biomass: Expected to yield over 300 Mt of bio-SAF annually by 2050. However, competition for resources might restrict this potential. Unlocking additional feedstocks or enhancing efficiencies and technological advancements over the following decades could expand this potential.
• Power-to-liquid (PtL): Critical for achieving an annual SAF production of 500 Mt by 2050, relying on maximizing cost-effective bio-SAF to alleviate pressure on e-SAF.

To optimize SAF production, it’s vital to enhance conversion efficiencies, expedite technology deployment, improve feedstock logistics, and invest in essential infrastructure for scaling commercial facilities worldwide.

“We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritized then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonization. There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Key findings from the report are as follows:

• There exist sufficient sustainable feedstocks and technologies for SAF production to meet aviation’s net zero carbon emissions goal by 2050.
• With optimal policies and investments, biomass feedstocks could yield over 300 Mt of SAF annually by mid-century, complemented by approximately 200 Mt from e-SAF.

The main challenges include:

• Strengthening the feedstock supply chain infrastructure and scaling novel sources that meet sustainability criteria, ensuring the availability of identified feedstocks for SAF production within the aviation sector.
• Accelerating technology rollout to facilitate new SAF production technologies, especially PtL, with reliable access to cost-effective renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure—all of which are necessary for the PtL process.
• Coordinated government policies must be enacted to support innovation and investment, creating a fully functional SAF market and unlocking new economic opportunities.
• Regional leadership is crucial, particularly in North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China, and ASEAN, as they are identified as key drivers for global SAF output.
• Encouraging the energy industry to invest in SAF production capacity, back technology commercialization, and align their business strategies with global decarbonization objectives.

“The report highlights local and regional prospects for SAF production, creating jobs, stimulating economies, and supporting energy security goals. Governments, energy producers, investors, and the aviation sector must collaborate, de-risk investment, and hasten rollout. Policy certainty and cross-sector cooperation are imperative to unlock necessary scale. The time for action is now—delays will complicate the challenge further,” emphasized Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President of Sustainability and Chief Economist.

“This study illustrates that SAF has the potential to be a critical solution for the decarbonization of aviation. Transforming SAF feedstock into tangible SAF production relies heavily on policymakers and business leaders, especially within the energy sector. The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to convert this proven potential into reality,” added Walsh.