The deteriorating situation in the Middle East is weighing heavily on inbound travel demand to Japan. Flights transiting through the region have been suspended one after another, leading to cancellations of accommodations at popular destinations. Rising demand for direct flights and increased fuel costs have resulted in escalating airfares, exacerbating the decline in visitor numbers.

A case in point is the Hida Takayama area in Gifu Prefecture, a hotspot for international travelers. Many European tourists have pulled out of their reservations. According to the Hida Takayama Ryokan and Hotel Cooperative, approximately 4,000 bookings—primarily from European visitors—were canceled as of April 14, following increased tensions in the region.

Japan’s inbound demand has also suffered from strained China-Japan relations, which have led to a drop in Chinese visitors. The ongoing events in the Middle East further complicate the situation.

Additionally, airfare hikes from Europe are influencing travel plans. With airlines discontinuing flights that travel through the Middle East, there is a surge in demand for direct flights to Japan from Europe, causing ticket prices to rise significantly due to dynamic pricing trends.

The spike in aviation fuel prices is a growing concern as well. Following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, jet fuel prices surged past USD 200 per barrel in late March, nearly tripling from USD 80 in February.

Airlines are trying to account for these increased costs. Fuel surcharges on flights from Europe to Japan at ANA and JAL were still below JPY 30,000 (around USD 200) for April and May, but they could soar to over JPY 90,000 (roughly USD 600) if the situation does not stabilize.

According to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), visitors from the Middle East totaled 250,000 in 2025, while 3.16 million European tourists visited. Together, they constituted about 8% of the total inbound arrivals (42.68 million). Yet, Japan may struggle to reach its goal of 60 million inbound tourists by 2030 amid declining relations with China and ongoing challenges from the Middle East.