The recent emergency closures of Middle Eastern airspace have dealt another blow to China–Europe routes, which were already operating under tight capacity constraints due to the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
The most immediate consequence of rerouting has been a sharp surge in airlines’ operating costs.
For instance, due to severe congestion along alternative corridors, Turkish Airlines flight TK209 (Singapore–Istanbul) spent an additional 206 minutes in the air—nearly 3.5 hours—resulting in more than 56 extra tonnes of carbon emissions for a single flight.
As fighting in the Middle East disrupts airspace across several countries, including Iran and the United Arab Emirates, and with airport operations in Dubai and Abu Dhabi reportedly impacted, the region’s major airlines—Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways—have been compelled to suspend or cancel numerous flights. This has effectively crippled the “southern corridor,” once a crucial backup route between China and Europe.
The timing couldn’t be worse. With post–Lunar New Year business travel, returning overseas students, and increased tourism due to visa facilitation coinciding, the already limited nonstop capacity is being pushed to its limits. This has resulted in a severe shortage of direct China–Europe tickets and a dramatic increase in fares.
Economy class fares from Shanghai to Paris, which usually cost around RMB 5,000 (approximately USD 725), have skyrocketed to over RMB 30,000 (about USD 4,327)—a fivefold increase. On certain days, direct tickets are selling out almost immediately after release.
This surge sharply contrasts with the scenario just weeks ago. Before the Middle Eastern airspace disruptions, carriers like Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways were heavily discounting China–Europe routes. Now, with many Middle Eastern flights in disarray, cheap fares have vanished, replaced by soaring prices and widespread ticket shortages.
The Strait of Hormuz is crucial, handling about a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil trade, with approximately 13.4% of China’s seaborne crude imports sourced from Iran. Any disruption in shipping through the strait jeopardizes global energy security, thereby impacting the broader macroeconomic landscape.
The combination of airspace instability in the Middle East and escalating energy risks is intensifying ripple effects on global aviation, fueling a vicious cycle of conflict, airspace disruption, route congestion, soaring costs, and escalating pressure on energy markets.
