The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP) for air travel, indicating that global air passenger demand is predicted to more than double by 2050.

Under the mid-range scenario, demand is expected to soar to 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from 2024 to 2050, up from nine trillion RPKs observed in 2024.

Growth Scenarios

• A higher growth scenario projects a 3.3% CAGR, leading to 21.9 trillion RPKs in 2050.
• A lower growth scenario suggests a 2.9% CAGR, resulting in 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050.

These scenarios consider long-term economic growth, population dynamics, outlooks on aviation fuel prices, and developments in air transport supply capacity.

A Positive Outlook

IATA’s director-general, Willie Walsh, expresses a fundamentally positive outlook for air travel. He stated, “People want to travel and, across all scenarios we modeled, the demand to fly is projected to double by mid-century. This is encouraging news for global economic and social development, as the growth of aviation will generate opportunities and jobs globally.”

He emphasizes the necessity for appropriate policies that foster effective infrastructure development, access to markets, regulatory alignment, and a successful clean energy transition.

Regional Growth Trends

The growth rate varies by region, with Asia-Pacific and Africa expected to show the highest growth, at CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Conversely, Europe and North America are anticipated to grow more slowly, at 2.5% and 2.8%.

Key Trends Identified

1. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a structural shift in aviation demand, which is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2050.
2. Though demand remains robust, historical trends indicate a slow but steady decline in growth rates, moving from 6.1% CAGR between 1972-1998 to 3.1% CAGR projected for 2024-2050.