Ahead of the Paris Air Show next week, the Brazilian aerospace manufacturer Embraer has released its Market Outlook 2025. This annual report offers a 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries specifically within the sub-150-seat category.

The Market Outlook 2025 anticipates approximately 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044. The report includes an analysis of global influences and trends across seven different regions, reflecting the factors that impact aircraft demand.

Notably, due to its increasing significance in commercial aviation, China is highlighted separately in this year’s report for the first time, providing an in-depth look at its growing market.

Additionally, the document discusses the demand for cargo aircraft, forecasting future passenger-to-freighter conversions as well.

Not Quite Status Quo

The overall projections for new sub-150-seat aircraft deliveries remain steady compared to Embraer’s earlier estimates. Arjan Meijer, President and CEO of Embraer’s commercial aviation sector, associates this stability with the enduring social, supply chain, and geopolitical trends previously observed during the pandemic.

He stated: “Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long-lasting. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we underscored the transition from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical landscape. Now, as nations seek greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access is expected to rise.”

Moreover, Meijer emphasized that the integration of mixed fleets comprising both small and large narrowbody aircraft is essential for securing long-term growth. This approach is anticipated to enhance versatility, allowing airlines to align capacity with demand, broaden their networks, and fulfill national and regional development goals.